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From: iayork@panix.com (Ian A. York)
Newsgroups: alt.folklore.urban
Subject: Re: need data about full moon accidents
Date: 27 Dec 1995 13:17:35 -0500

In article <4bri30$3bu@news.duke.edu>,
Rob Carscadden <carscadd@pps.duke.edu> wrote:
>I'm sure that more accidents happen during a full moon is an UL. It justs
>sticks in peoples mind more when the ER is full on a full moon. I've seen
>the data that debunks this UL but I can't recall where.

This is certainly a widely believed phenomenon, even (especially) among medical types [1], but it's simply not true. Large-scale studies have found no association between the phase of the moon and childbirth [2-3], suicide [4-7] (one study did find a very small difference, with women only, showing fewer attempts at full moon; other larger studies found no such effect), accidents [8] (again, a very small effect - this time of crescent moon - was seen, but was probably a small-sample effect), crisis calls [9], and absenteeism [10].

Why do people believe this? As you say, it's probably the heads-I-win, tails-doesn't-count approach. If you're in the emergency room, and it's a busy night, it's just a busy night. If it's a busy night and there's a full moon, then it's the moon effect. If it's quiet - well, that doesn't count. Humans are pattern-seeking animals.

It's worth mentioning that there are people who firmly believe in the lunar effect, such as J. Sitar, member of the esteemed institution "Interni ambulance polikliniky Kurim Okresniho ustavu narodniho zdravi Brno-venkov" and a spiritual member of the Abianian school of thought. Sitar has published a number of articles on this effect, a representative example of which is [11].

Ian

[1] Vance DE.
Belief in lunar effects on human behavior. Psychological Reports. 76(1):32-4, 1995 Abstract
Questionnaires sent to 325 people indicated that 140 people (43%) held the personal belief that lunar phenomena alter individual behavior. Specifically, mental health professionals (social workers, master's clinical psychologists, nurses' aides, LPNs) held this belief more strongly than other occupational groups.

[2] Periti E. Biagiotti R.
[Lunar phases and incidence of spontaneous deliveries. Our experience]. Original Title: Fasi lunari ed incidenza di parti spontanei. Nostra esperienza.
Minerva Ginecologica. 46(7-8):429-33, 1994 Abstract
OBJECTIVE. To evaluate the relationship between lunar phases and birthrate. STUDY DESIGN. We examined 7842 spontaneous deliveries at Obstetric and Gynaecologic Clinic of University of Florence, between [ ... ]
CONCLUSIONS. These results do not support the hypothesis of a relationship between moon-phase changes and the incidence of spontaneous deliveries.

[3] Strolego F. Gigli C. Bugalho A.
[The influence of lunar phases on the frequency of deliveries]. Original Title: Influenza delle fasi lunari sulla frequenza dei parti. Minerva Ginecologica. 43(7-8):359-63, 1991 Abstract
[ ... ]
anticipating it. To verify the veracity of this belief, we studied the frequency of home deliveries of Maputo (Mozambique), without any medical assistance according to lunar cycle. A study of 5226 births in 37 lunar cycles didn't show a significative increase of deliveries during specific lunar phases and week days. The same result has been achieved expanding the examination period to 2 days before and after lunar phase. Therefore, on the basis of this study, the hypothesis that lunar phase may influence the process of birth is disproved.

[4] Buckley NA. Whyte IM. Dawson AH. There are days ... and moons. Self-poisoning is not lunacy. Medical Journal of Australia. 159(11-12):786-9, 1993 Abstract
[ ... ]
were 2215 patients admitted. There was a marked circadian variation. Over 6% of all admissions occurred in each of the hours between 6 p.m. and 1 a.m. compared with less than 2% per hour between 5 a.m. and 9 a.m. This pattern was not different for patients with a diagnosis of depression. Numerology, biorhythms and star signs had no significant correlations with self-poisoning, nor was there a significant weekly or yearly variation in presentations. There was a small but statistically significant sex difference in presentations analysed by lunar phases. At the new moon 60% of self-poisonings were in women, compared with 45% when the moon was full. The odds ratios (OR) for women to be admitted at full moon and at new moon were 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-1.66; P value not significant) and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.57-0.92; P = 0.009) respectively. The mean illumination of the moon at the time of overdose was 50.63% +/- 0.91% for men, compared with 47.45% +/- 0.85% for women (P = 0.014). CONCLUSION: The circadian cycle (but not weekly, yearly or mystical cycles) should be taken into account when determining staffing levels for poison information and casualty services. The full moon is protective for women.

[5] Martin SJ. Kelly IW. Saklofske DH. Suicide and lunar cycles: a critical review over 28 years. Psychological Reports. 71(3 Pt 1):787-95, 1992 Dec. Abstract
20 studies which have examined the relations between completed suicide or attempted suicide and suicide threats with the synodic lunar cycle are reviewed. Most studies indicated no relation between lunar phase and the measures of suicide. The positive findings conflicted, have not been replicated, or were confounded with variables such as season, weekday, weather, or holidays. It is concluded that there is insufficient evidence for assuming a relationship between the synodic lunar cycle and completed or attempted suicide.

[6] Maldonado G. Kraus JF.
Variation in suicide occurrence by time of day, day of the week, month, and lunar phase.
Suicide & Life-Threatening Behavior. 21(2):174-87, 1991 Summer. Abstract
[ ... ]
cases. 4,190 suicide deaths were identified during the study period. Suicide occurrence varied substantially by time of day; for both sexes and for ages under 65 years, the fewest suicide deaths occurred during the early morning hours, from 0401 to 0800. For recent years of the study, suicides occurred most frequently on Monday for both males and females and for most age groups. Variation by month followed no consistent pattern by gender, age, years of the study, or combinations of these factors. Contrary to popular belief, suicide occurrence did not vary by lunar phase.

[7] Rogers TD. Masterton G. McGuire R. Parasuicide and the lunar cycle.
Psychological Medicine. 21(2):393-7, 1991 May. Abstract
Admissions to hospital following parasuicide in one city over eighteen years exhibit a cyclical variation apparently synchronized with the lunar quarters. The effect would only account for approximately 0.7 out of the average of 46 parasuicides per 100,000 adults per lunar cycle (95% CI 0.6-0.8), and fails to reach statistical significance.

[8] Alonso Y.
Geophysical variables and behavior: LXXII. Barometric pressure, lunar cycle, and traffic accidents.
Perceptual & Motor Skills. 77(2):371-6, 1993 Oct. Abstract
This study assessed relationships between traffic accidents and variables [ ... ]
days before the full moon. Accidents occurred more frequently during crescent moon than during waning moon, but no significant differences were noted when the lunar month was divided into four intervals of new moon, first quarter, full moon, and second quarter.

[9] Byrnes G. Kelly IW.
Crisis calls and lunar cycles: a twenty-year review. Psychological Reports. 71(3 Pt 1):779-85, 1992 Dec. Abstract
12 studies are reviewed that have examined the relationships among crisis calls to police stations, poison centers, and crisis intervention centers and the synodic lunar cycle. On the basis of the studies considered it is concluded that no good foundation exists for the belief that lunar phase is related to the frequency of crisis calls. In addition, there is no evidence whatsoever for the contention that calls of a more emotional or "out-of-control" nature occur more often at the full moon.

[10] Sands JM. Miller LE.
Effects of moon phase and other temporal variables on absenteeism. Psychological Reports. 69(3 Pt 1):959-62, 1991 Dec. Abstract
Previous research on the effects of lunar phase on deviant behavior has produced weak and inconsistent results and has been criticized for failing to use appropriate statistical controls. This study examined the effects of the full moon on daily absenteeism rates in a large organization while correcting for autocorrelation and controlling for the effects of the day of the week, month, and proximity to a holiday. Contrary to expectations, the full moon was associated with a significant (but very slight) decrease in absenteeism. Reasons for persistent beliefs in the effects of the full moon are discussed.

[11] Sitar J.
[The causality of lunar changes on cardiovascular mortality]. [Czech] Original Title: K pricinam lunarnich zmen kardiovaskularni umrtnosti. Casopis Lekaru Ceskych. 129(45):1425-30, 1990 Nov 9. Abstract
The author confirmed, based on different ways of processing of 1437 sudden cardiovascular deaths, that the frequency of these deaths changes in the course of the synodic moon with two maxima during the lunar quarters. Processing by the method of transfer of epochs made it possible to shift steadily the mortality curves according to the phase of solar activity. This made the author assume that the cause of the phenomenon of two-phasic change of mortality during lunation cannot be only gravitation (sudden tides) and that in addition the interfering influence of solar corpuscular radiation is involved. It is known that this radiation causes geomagnetic disorders. Consistent with the above view it was proved that in the course of lunation the greatest number of geomagnetic disorders occur at a time close to the lunar quarters. Then, as the author proved--aurora polaris is more frequent. The increased cardiovascular mortality is thus associated with an increased geomagnetic activity. The relationship is certainly not direct. The author indicates further trends of research to disclose the immediate causes which exert an unfavourable effect on our cardiovascular system.